Created: June 11, 2025
In a nutshell: Most forecasters think tomorrow’s May PPI report will show only a mild rebound after April’s sharp drop. The median view is +0.2 % month-over-month (MoM) for headline PPI and +0.3 % MoM for core PPI (ex-food & energy). Year-over-year (YoY) expectations cluster around 2.4 – 2.6 % for headline and about 3.1 % for core, implying producer-price inflation is still running a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2 % comfort zone but well below last year’s peaks. Below are the main publicly available estimates and how analysts frame the risks.
Consensus desk‐by‐desk forecasts
| Source | Headline PPI MoM | Headline PPI YoY | Core PPI MoM | Core PPI YoY | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investing.com calendar | +0.2 % (investing.com) | +2.4 % (investing.com) | +0.3 % (investing.com) | +3.1 % (investing.com) | Crowd-sourced consensus from 30+ sell-side desks |
| FXStreet preview | +0.2 % | +2.6 % | n/a | +3.1 % | Cites “steady core pressure” after April plunge (fxstreet.com) |
| MarketWatch economist survey | +0.2 % | 2.5 – 3.0 % range | +0.3 % | n/a | Warns tariffs could creep in over summer (marketwatch.com) |
| MarketWatch economic calendar | +0.2 % | n/a | +0.3 % | n/a | Snapshot of calendar consensus (marketwatch.com) |
| Investing.com newswire | +0.2 % | n/a | n/a | n/a | Bundled with tomorrow’s jobless-claims release (investing.com) |
| Trading Economics model | n/a | +2.6 % baseline path | n/a | n/a | Model-based projection of index level (tradingeconomics.com) |
| Morningstar/MarketWatch reprise | Echoes 0.2 % / 0.3 % view | 2.5 – 3.0 % | 0.3 % | n/a | Reiterates tariff risk (morningstar.com) |
Where ranges appear, citations capture the mid-point or full span given by the source.
How the street is framing upside vs. downside risks
Why a bounce is expected
- Base-effect math – April’s -0.5 % MoM plunge (heavily services-driven) sets a low bar for May, so even a modest price normalisation yields a +0.2 % print. (investing.com, tradingeconomics.com)
- Energy and freight costs edged higher in May, reversing part of April’s slide and lifting the goods component. (fxstreet.com)
Why the rebound could be softer (< 0.2 %)
- Ongoing margin compression: April’s surprise drop was led by trade-services margins; desks like MarketWatch’s panel warn margins may not have fully recovered yet. (marketwatch.com)
- Import-cost pass-through lag: With retailers still working through pre-tariff inventory, several analysts argue the bigger tariff hit may not show until June–July. (marketwatch.com)
Why numbers could overshoot (> 0.3 %)
- Tariff pass-through could accelerate sooner, especially in intermediate-goods categories already repricing (steel, semiconductors). (fxstreet.com)
- Sticky service inflation – wholesalers of transportation-related services are lifting rates in response to higher insurance and wage costs. (marketwatch.com)
Market‐impact playbook
| Scenario | Likely market reaction |
|---|---|
| Soft print (< 0.1 % MoM) | Treasury yields dip; rate-cut bets move forward; USD softens; tech & rate-sensitives bid. |
| In-line (~ 0.2–0.3 %) | Minimal move – focus shifts to Fed rhetoric at next week’s meeting. |
| Hot print (≥ 0.4 % MoM or core ≥ 0.4 %) | Front-end yields jump 8-12 bp; December cut odds fade; equities rotate toward value/energy; gold may wobble. |
(Reaction template based on the last three CPI-/PPI-driven sessions.) (marketwatch.com)
Key release logistics & what to watch in the tables
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Release time: Thursday, June 12 @ 8:30 a.m. ET (7:30 a.m. Chicago). (bls.gov)
-
Focus lines:
- Final demand services – did April’s -1.1 % snap back?
- Trade-services margins – a leading indicator for retail CPI.
- Core PPI ex-food/energy/trade – Fed staff track this ultra-core gauge (last = +2.9 % YoY). (investing.com)
-
Revision watch: Large seasonal-factor revisions in January make back-months volatile; desks will re-run core-PCE nowcasts after any back-cast changes. (reuters.com)
Bottom line
Consensus looks for a modest +0.2 % headline gain and +0.3 % core, but the band of private forecasts runs from flat to +0.4 %. With CPI already surprising on the soft side today, a similarly tame PPI would strengthen the “disinflation is back on track” narrative; a hot print risks reviving worries that tariffs are feeding through faster than expected.